预测急性胰腺炎患者疾病进展的相关参数研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1949.2018.11.0010

Chinese Journal of Critical Care Medicine

2018, Vol. 38

Issue (11): 970-975 DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1949.2018.11.0010

Research on parameters related to predicting disease progression in patients with acute pancreatitis

Zhao Hong-yan, Zhao Kui, Zhang Jing, Wang Chun-yan

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Abstract Objective To evaluate the parameters of predicting disease progression, death and transfer to ICU in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods A total of 317 AP patients were enrolled in the department of gastroenterology emergency of our hospital. The patients were divided into severe pancreatitis group (SAP group) and mild to moderate pancreatitis group (MAP-MSAP group) according to the degree of disease. The clinical characteristics and laboratory parameters of the two groups of patients admitted to hospital and admitted for 48 hours were compared. Relevant parameters affecting patient disease progression were evaluated. The receiver operating curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of these parameters for SAP, death, and transfer to ICU. Results A total of 57 (18.0%) patients developed SAP. 16 (5%) patients died. 23 (7.3%) patients were transferred to the ICU. ROC curve analysis showed that BISAP score, RANSON score, blood lactate, serum creatinine, BUN, 48 h serum creatinine, 48 h BUN, 48 h CRP had independent predictive power for SAP, death and transfer to ICU (all P<0.05). BISAP scores have higher accuracy for predicting SAP (AUC=0.965), death (AUC=0.978), and transfer to ICU (AUC=0.936). Among the parameters measured at 48 h, 48 h BUN had higher accuracy for predicting SAP (AUC=0.968), death (AUC=0.978) and transfer to ICU (AUC=0.952). Serum lactic acid has certain accuracy in predicting SAP, death and transfer to ICU. Conclusion BISAP score has a high accuracy in predicting SAP, death and transfer to the ICU, and is helpful for ICU emergency management. Serum lactic acid can be used to develop a new acute pancreatitis scoring system.

Key words： Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) Death Intensive care unit (ICU)

About author:: Zhao Hong-yan, E-mail: zhaohongyantj@sina.com

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	Zhao Hong-yan
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	Zhang Jing
	Wang Chun-yan

Cite this article:

Zhao Hong-yan,Zhao Kui,Zhang Jing, et al. Research on parameters related to predicting disease progression in patients with acute pancreatitis[J]. Chinese Journal of Critical Care Medicine, 2018, 38(11): 970-975.

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http://www.cnemergency.org.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1002-1949.2018.11.0010 OR http://www.cnemergency.org.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I11/970

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